The actions of government can have a dramatic effect on outcomes. Policy or regulatory responses can change costs of a ride or the number of people in a vehicle. Governments can use policy and regulation to balance the desires private companies with the public good.
Disruptive trends extend beyond just the technology changes in transportation. While not a complete list, we identified 16 factors related to trends including, but not limited to, job market health, fuel prices, social networking, vehicle ownership, AVs, and internet shopping. Despite the unknowns, we tested the potential AV effects using traditional regional travel forecasting models. In our case, we tested scenarios using models from seven regions across the US combined with similar test results from two additional regions.